Is Blu-ray a shoe-in to win the format war?
A research firm recently predicted that Blu-ray would still emerge as the winning format even after Paramount/Dreamworks have moved to HD-DVD. Still 58% of the studio market share is devoted to Blu-Ray exclusively, with another 19% offering both formats.
Although this still paints a pretty picture for Blu-ray, it’s a VERY supply-oriented argument and neglects the demand side of the equation. Most consumers do not follow market share breakdowns of the studios, and they’re largely unaware of the capacity/technological differences favoring the Blu-Ray format. What they are aware of (if they’re in the market for a player), is that HD-DVD players are $239 while Blu-Rays start at $350. If this $100+ pricing gap doesn’t narrow, the Blu-Ray format will depend almost entirely on PS3 sales which, while significant, cannot win the format war alone.
Another significant point in the analyst report concerns the long life physical DVDs still have in the road ahead:
DVD will still be king in 2011 — and “the revenues are not going to come from digital [delivery] for four to five years”
Music to Netflix and Blockbuster’s ears.
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Not an expert in this area at all, but as a consumer, I wonder why I even care. Isn’t $350 at Best Buy for a terrabyte of data making this debate almost immaterial. Don’t I just want digital delivery and cheap local storage. I used to buy quite a few DVDs (3-5 per month). Now, I rarely buy them (I admit I bought Hot Fuzz recently - but that is the one exception the last year). I really don’t want to buy DVDs now. I want content digitally or simply on demand for a subscription.
sean