NPD survey on HD media (check date for expiration)
Many blogs and researchers are quoting the NPD Group’s survey which concludes that there’s very low intent to purchase High Definition discs players. Read the fine print and you’ll see the survey was conducted three months ago. Three months is a long time in the early stages of this format battle. Not least because HD-DVD standalone players were $299 at the time of the survey whereas they are now $234, or $199 if you’re willing to buy an open-box special. At this stage, a 3 month lag makes a fairly large difference. Player sales should also be a leading indicator for HD format media sales, especially when you consider cross-elasticity (i.e. it’s a fairly safe bet that a 30% reduction in price on an HD-DVD player would likely lead to a >30% increase in volume for movies purchased). This discussion will be a lot more interesting in early 2008 after the holiday season has seen a couple of months of sub-$200 prices on HD-DVD players.
On a visit to Costco this weekend, it was clear that marketing messages are extremely confusing concerning HD media. I saw a number of classic, standard definition DVD players with “HDMI” “1080p” and “High Definition” stickers plastered all over them. Usually in small font they would add the word “upconversion”, which really means you’re sending a low-resolution signal to your High Definition player and trying to fill in the gaps. But it’s not HD. It may take some education to overturn the barrage of misleading marketing messages related to HD.
The living room device I need
Vudu + Freevo + Pinnacle + USBTV = Dream Device.
- On-demand HD movies with media storage via Vudu
- Free over-the-air HDTV via Pinnacle
- Free DVR and media player capabilities via Freevo
- Portability with your video to play on any computer or TV via USBTV [combined w/ Pinnacle capabilities]
- The best part: no more monthly $70 cable bills
Comcast needs to practice Vudu
Vudu, the “high-speed video store in the living room” may strike some as just another fledgling attempt at putting yet another device in your living room. The concept is not new. But it is noteworthy for addressing 2 gaps in the incumbent cable/sat/telco video VoD solutions: 1) Vudu appears to have a reasonably good software/hardware user experience and 2) It utilizes peer-to-peer technology to legally distribute content.
As a consumer, I’m thinking why would I buy another $400 box for my living room? Why can’t the Comcasts of the world offer something like this for the $12.95 monthly fee I’m paying them for a crippled Motorola HD-DVR?
If Comcast had any common sense, they would look at this and think: 1) my software/hardware consumer experience stinks and has never been a core competency, and 2) my infrastructure constraints remain a bottleneck to delivering true video on demand, and peer-to-peer technology could really provide some leverage. Question for Comcast: Why not acquire Vudu (or strike a licensing deal) and ramp up your undifferentiated offering?
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Led Zeppelin II
Led Zeppelin
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